The ten largest US ports recorded a 7.9% year-over-year drop in inbound container volume in June, marking the second consecutive month of declines following May’s 6.6% decrease, according to the latest Container Volume Observer report from industry veteran John McCown.
These significant downturns represent a sharp reversal from April’s 9.6% gain, with outbound volume also declining by 5.0% in June, the report highlights.
McCown reports that inbound volume dropped by 1.8% in Q2 2025, marking a stark contrast with Q1’s 9.6% gain and continuing a downward trajectory following increases of 12.5% in Q4 2024 and 17.6% in Q3 2024.
“In a diametric contrast with the 15.2% overall annual growth for inbound loads seen in 2024, it is now most likely that there will be a decline in overall annual inbound volume in 2025,” notes McCown. “That will be one of the more striking year to year changes in U.S. container volume in the six-decade history of container shipping.”
The report highlights that total U.S. inbound volume has historically grown at rates exceeding U.S. GDP, often at two or more multiples, and thus the “unusual nature of an actual decline in inbound container volume into the U.S. cannot be overemphasized,” McCown writes, noting he’s only aware of two other periods of annual declines: during the financial crisis and the pandemic. Both previous downturns proved short-lived, with 2024 volume actually exceeding the peak pandemic volume year of 2022.
June’s overall inbound volume of 1,879,461 TEUs was sequentially 1.8% above May but still 4.7% below the 59-month average.
McCown identifies the tariff situation as the primary driver of the downturn: “The downward turn in 2025 will be due to tariffs and unfortunately there is nothing at present that suggests it will be short-lived. More than ever, it now looks like notable tariffs will be in place at least during the balance of the current administration.”
The report also addresses the upcoming USTR ship fee plan scheduled for October implementation, describing it as “yet another form of a tariff” that specifically targets ships operated by Chinese carriers or built in China. This plan is expected to result in “a noticeable withdrawal of overall capacity that will put upward pressure on the shipping rates charged by carriers for loads into and out of the U.S.”
McCown warns that current tariff complexity is creating supply chain disruptions, with some shipments being abandoned when tariffs exceed cargo value. The resulting “lumpiness and irregularity” in shipping patterns could potentially lead to bottlenecks and congestion problems reminiscent of pandemic-era disruptions.
The report concludes by framing the impact of tariffs as a trade-off between commerce and inflation: “The more inbound container volume to the U.S. declines, the more commerce and growth will be impacted but the less inflation we will get. The less inbound container volume to the U.S. declines, the more inflation we will get but the less commerce and growth will be impacted. There is simply no good place to be on that spectrum.”
Mike Schuler
gcaptain.com